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The October 2026 energy price cap — what it means for your bills

Ofgem announces the new energy price cap for October to December 2026 at the end of August — expected around 26 August — so the exact figure isn’t confirmed yet. What we do know: two things change on 1 October — the cap resets the standard-variable rates, and a government cut takes VAT off electricity for six months. Here’s what that means, what the cap is today, and what to do now. We’ll add the new figure the moment Ofgem publishes it.

• When you’ll know the October figure. Ofgem sets the 1 October to 31 December 2026 price cap and publishes it near the end of August — expected around 26 August 2026. Until then the exact figure isn’t confirmed, so treat any hard number you see as an estimate, not fact. We’ll add Ofgem’s real figure here the day it lands.
• Two things change on 1 October. First, the price cap resets the standard-variable unit rates and standing charges. Second — and this is already built into those capped rates — the government is removing VAT on electricity, cutting it from 5% to 0% from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027. It applies to electricity only, not gas, and the government says it’s worth around £45 a year for a typical home — though it runs for six months and a higher cap could offset much of it. Source: HM Government, announced 21 July 2026.
• So will my bill go up in October? It depends where Ofgem sets the cap. The VAT cut pulls electricity rates down; wholesale energy prices are the bigger swing and can push the cap either way. The forecaster Cornwall Insight expects only a small net change — about £1,700 a year for a typical dual-fuel home, which works out at roughly £140 a month, barely different from the bill today (their forecast on 22 July 2026; a forecast, not Ofgem’s decision). On current forecasts, most homes are unlikely to feel a big change either way.
• The cap today (until 30 September). On 1 July 2026 Ofgem raised the cap by about 13% for a typical direct-debit home on gas and electricity — that’s about £1,663 a year, or roughly £140 a month, for a home using a typical amount. The capped rates now average about 26.11p per kWh for electricity and 7.33p per kWh for gas, plus daily standing charges of 57.19p and 29.04p (a GB average — it varies by region). Source: Ofgem, price cap 1 July–30 September 2026.
• What the cap is — and isn’t. Ofgem’s cap limits the unit rate (pence per kWh) and the standing charge on the standard variable tariff. It resets every three months and varies a little by region. It does not cap your total bill — use more, pay more — so the headline figure is Ofgem’s estimate for a typical home, not a limit on what you can be charged. What the price cap actually is →
• Why winter bills still feel bigger. Even with rates steady, most homes use far more energy from October to March — heating especially — so the bill climbs simply because you’re using more. Worth expecting before you go hunting for a fault. Get ready for winter →
• What to do now. Don’t wait for the headline. Check whether your current rates and direct debit are fair, and weigh up whether fixing suits your home. Can you beat the next rise? →

What the 26 August announcement will (and won’t) tell you

It sets the standard-variable rates from October, so it tells you which way the default tariff is moving. It won’t tell you your bill — that still comes down to how much you use and your region’s exact rates. If the new cap is higher and a fix is at or below it, locking in can add certainty; if fixes sit well above the cap, you may prefer to stay flexible. Should you fix? →

Whatever the new cap turns out to be, the useful move is the same: know your own numbers. The free bill check reads your rates off a photo of your bill and compares them to the current cap, and weighs your direct debit against your real usage — in about 30 seconds, with nothing saved.